A dive into local surf forecasting with Craig Brokensha

LEADING Australian surf forecaster Craig Brokensha is optimistic about the winter ahead for surfers on the Surf Coast and Bellarine.

The region has enjoyed an excellent start to winter, with predominantly offshore winds and quality waves in the 2-6ft range.

Competitors at last month’s Australian Indigenous Surfing Titles at Bells Beach were among those to benefit from the conditions.

“It’s been a great start down there after what was a dud autumn,” Brokensha said.

“Since winter started, we’ve had amazing winds, big quality swells, moderate surf and fantastic swell directions.

“These swells coming from the south sneak up between Tasmania and King Island and have been paramount to the success so far.”

Other climate drivers are also at play, with an El Niño weather pattern developing and becoming increasingly likely to bring offshore winds and mid-to-large swells across the Surf Coast.

“This will be favourable for surfers down there, and if the fronts keep developing, there’s going to a fantastic run of waves to come,” Brokensha said.

Brokensha’s path to becoming one of Australia’s leading surf forecasters began in Adelaide, where a passion for surfing eventually led him from engineering studies into oceanography and meteorology.

His weekends quickly became consumed by chasing waves, taking photos and sharing insights with fellow surfers.

During his honours year he began contributing photography and forecasts to surf forecasting website Swellnet, eventually joining the company full-time in 2009.

More than 15 years later, Brokensha remains as passionate about the work as ever.

“The best thing is no swell or storm is the same, and once you start to learn each place’s idiosyncrasy it becomes addictive,” he said.

To build a forecast, Brokensha begins by studying the major ocean basins between South Africa and Tasmania, identifying storms and swell-generating systems and how they are tracking towards the Australian coast.

The stronger and more sustained the winds, the larger the swell generated before its energy spreads towards the coastline.

“It’s about identifying the sources, and how close they push to the region, which affect the consistency,” Brokensha said.

“I then look at the swell periods to recognise when it arrives and then throw in the local winds.

“Here at Swellnet we don’t give you the ‘Bells Beach is pumping’, we give you all the in-depth details and then you can make your own decisions on when to go surfing.”

Brokensha’s advice to local surfers is simple: “Get out there, chuck on a warm wetsuit and enjoy a great run of waves to come.”