Report predicts near-record beef production

AUSTRALIAN beef production this year is expected to come close to equalling production records set in 2024, Rabobank says in its just-released Australian Beef Seasonal Outlook 2025.

The annual report, by the agribusiness banking specialist’s RaboResearch division, says the high beef production volumes are being matched by growing global demand, with the relatively-balanced market expected to support stable prices and good returns for Australian beef producers.

Report author, RaboResearch senior animal proteins analyst Angus Gidley-Baird said successive favourable seasons – with the exception of ongoing significant dry areas in Victoria and southeast South Australia – have allowed Australian cattle numbers to build.

“The increased calving from this larger cattle inventory is now flowing into markets as finished cattle, with 2024 setting a new record (2.57 million tonnes) in Australian beef production,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

RaboResearch believes 2025 will continue to see high numbers of cattle turned off and, with continuing high carcase weights, production volumes are expected to remain high and close to the 2024 record.

Fortunately for Australia, Mr Gidley-Baird said, other major beef-producing countries are expected to see a decline in production in 2025.

“This creates demand for imports and reduces competition in Australian export markets, supporting demand for Australian beef.”

The outlook of high production balanced by growing global demand leads to the bank’s expectation that Australian cattle prices will remain relatively steady through the course of 2025 with some potential upside.

“However, as we have seen in the first four months of the year, there remain uncertainties around trade, with the imposition of tariffs and geopolitical tensions that can lead to trade disruptions,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

“Notwithstanding, 2025 is shaping up to be a good year for the Australian beef cattle industry with steady prices and strong production.”

Australia’s domestic per capita beef consumption is assumed to drop slightly in 2025 due to ongoing economic pressures.

“However, household incomes are forecast to increase by the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), which will provide some support for beef consumption,” Mr Gidley-Baird said.

Despite the Australian population forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2025, RaboResearch projects a slight drop in per capita consumption, resulting in domestic beef consumption being steady in 2025 and therefore exports will continue to play an important role, accounting for 75 per cent of production.

Mr Gidley-Baird said distribution across export markets is expected to remain similar for Australian beef this year.

“The US market, which consumed almost as much Australian beef as our domestic market in 2024, is expected to remain the largest market. This will predominantly be manufacturing beef.

“And we expect Asian markets will be similar to 2024, that is with relatively weak but slowly improving demand.”

He said global beef production is projected to be up slightly in Q1. However, RaboResearch expects it to contract through the rest of 2025 to be down 2 per cent compared to 2024.