In reverence of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II

WITH GARETH KENT

Firstly, I am not a monarchist, nor really a republican. However, as an Australian, I am grateful; the reign of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth, has provided our country 70 years of certainty of democracy and governance, which has provided for continued growth in our economy, our quality of life, and in general prosperity.

Queen Elizabeth was crowned in June 1953. In the 1950s, the average house price in Australia was $11,080 (inflation-adjusted).

By 1970 the average value was $18,700; in 1980 around $76,500. By 1990 the values had more than doubled to $184,600; in 2000 it was $312,000; in 2010 $575,000; and today in 2022 is now nationally $921,500.

Additionally, a leading teacher’s salary in 1953 was just under $4,500 per annum, whereas today, a leading teacher records a salary circa $122,000 .

This equates to wage growth of approximately 27 times multiple, compared with approximately 83 times multiple house price increases over the same period.

Simply put is that house prices have increased three times faster than wage growth since 1953. A correlating fact; the national population was 8,819,165 (1954 census) and has grown to now being approx.

25,670,051 (2020 census), that’s also a factor of three times growth multiple. Are house prices connected to population growth? The population of Australia is predicted to continue to grow to 29 million by 2030 and 31.8 million by 2040.

The “Better Life index” shows that Australia currently sits in fifth place in the world, in terms of quality of life, with measures such as affordable housing, wage growth, jobs satisfaction etc.

I cannot locate an index for 1953. However, at this time, Australia was coming to grips with many complex social issues, had significant immigration challenges, lower life expectancy, recorded high infant deaths, and, as a post-World War II nation in a rebuild, certainly did not provide the quality we enjoy today.

Australia has been in recession only seven times since 1953, with a massive gap of 27 years between 1991 and 2018, when we only lasted in recession for months. In comparison, America has been in slump 14 times in the same period.

I reference this fact given the current state of the US economy and the strong indication that the US, Japan, and many other developed countries are entering or about to enter a recession.

History would imply that we don’t always follow these countries into recession.

As a young property valuer, I was always trained to study the past as much as the future, to look for trends or to understand the dynamics that drive value for a particular property.

It has been an interesting exercise to look back at this period. I think you will agree that specific trends are pretty obvious.

I believe as a nation; we can be grateful for the most sustained growth of our country through a period of relative peace and give thanks to those who may have played some part in ensuring that certainty, may our beloved Queen rest in peace.

Lastly, I note that the 1953 Grand Final was played between Geelong and Collingwood; it was the 56th annual Grand Final of the VFL and enjoyed by 89,149 spectators.

Perhaps only one umpiring decision in this year’s Qualifying Final might have changed history repeating? The only downer on this little fact is that in 1953 Collingwood won! Let’s hope that history stays history. Go the Cats!