The starting gun

The peaks and troughs of property market cycles can only been seen in hindsight, however when we look back in 12 months time, we believe that the 2019 federal election will be seen as the starting gun to a new property cycle.

This is for several reasons. Firstly it’s due. The peak of the last cycle was in September 2017. People have their preferences and their needs. When a property market softens many property market participants, that is buyers and sellers, have a preference to take a wait and see attitude.

However at some point, their needs overcome their preferences and they just want to get on with their lives. With the re election of the current government, they know what they are getting and are more likely to be comfortable to move forward because of this certainty.

Part of this certainty is no change to property taxes such as negative gearing and the capital gains discount. People generally dislike change, especially change that has a strong possibility of unintended consequences. As explained in the videos I produced on our social media about these changes, they were flawed policy proposals and I believe a contributing factor in the Labor defeat. Even if you are not currently negatively gearing a property as a wealth creation tool, I believe that many potential investors wanted the same opportunity as current investors and didn’t want to be limited in their choices and then be more highly taxed when they exit the property.

Both the Banking Royal Commission and the federal election have been significant distractions to property buyers and sellers moving forward, and with those behind us we believe heightened levels of engagement in the property market will follow. We firmly believe that banks will ease back slightly in their restrictive lending practices as they move forward away from the limelight of the Banking Royal Commission. This will be in response to maintaining and growing their market share, especially in response to the continuing emergence of non bank lenders, which we are seeing more commonly in our day to day dealings.

If we can be of any assistance in any real estate matter please do not hesitate to call.