{"id":15845,"date":"2018-10-03T05:58:26","date_gmt":"2018-10-03T05:58:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/?p=15845"},"modified":"2018-10-04T12:33:33","modified_gmt":"2018-10-04T12:33:33","slug":"from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\/","title":{"rendered":"FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>WITH CORELOGIC\u2019S\u00a0<\/strong><strong>TIM LAWLESS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Without a doubt, housing risks are heightened relative to a year ago.<\/p>\n<p>Dwelling values are slipping lower nationally, mortgage rates are edging higher and mortgage arrears have moved off their record lows.<\/p>\n<p>All this against a backdrop of record high levels of household debt (the ratio of disposable income to household debt reached 190 per cent in March this year), increasing levels of housing supply and rising domestic and global uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>It should come as no surprise that some commentators are forecasting a substantial reduction in dwelling values.<\/p>\n<p>We saw similar forecasts during previous downturns from the likes of Steven Keen, Harry Dent and Jeremy Grantham as well as many others.<\/p>\n<p>The most recent dire prediction to get mainstream airplay was from Martin North predicting a 40-45 per cent fall in dwelling values; albeit with only a 20 percent chance of this occurring.<\/p>\n<p>If we look at the current downturn in Australian housing, the trajectory of decline is actually quite unremarkable.<\/p>\n<p>While growth is forecast to be subdued relative to previous years, house and unit values are predicted to return to mild positive annual growth by the middle of 2019. Overall, it\u2019s hard to see a scenario where Australian housing values could<br \/>\nfall off a cliff. For this to happen, we would need to see an about face in labour market conditions, a global shock or a big rise in interest rates \u2013 none of which seems likely at the moment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WITH CORELOGIC\u2019S\u00a0TIM LAWLESS Without a doubt, housing risks are heightened relative to a year ago. Dwelling values are slipping lower nationally, mortgage rates are edging higher and mortgage arrears have moved off their record lows. All this against a backdrop of record high levels of household debt (the ratio of disposable income to household debt [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":15846,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-15845","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD? - Bellarine Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD? - Bellarine Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"WITH CORELOGIC\u2019S\u00a0TIM LAWLESS Without a doubt, housing risks are heightened relative to a year ago. Dwelling values are slipping lower nationally, mortgage rates are edging higher and mortgage arrears have moved off their record lows. All this against a backdrop of record high levels of household debt (the ratio of disposable income to household debt [...]Read More...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Bellarine Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"jamespetertaylor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-10-03T05:58:26+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2018-10-04T12:33:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/10\/aaaa-49.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"249\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"165\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"James Taylor\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@notthatjt\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"James Taylor\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"James Taylor\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2655215c02475fb33ffa43a1c8fe2677\"},\"headline\":\"FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-10-03T05:58:26+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2018-10-04T12:33:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":253,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/prod\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2018\\\/10\\\/aaaa-49.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Real Estate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\\\/\",\"name\":\"FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD? 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He has also worked for several publications at Fairfax, including the Knox Weekly, Casey Weekly and Pakenham Weekly, and in the UK with the Berkshire Media Group. Raised in Geelong, James has been back in his hometown since 2011 and now lives in Waurn Ponds. Outside of journalism, James divides his time between barracking for the Cats, chasing his two-year-old daughter around, and posting on Twitter (@notthatjt).\",\"sameAs\":[\"jamespetertaylor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/@notthatjt\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/author\\\/jamestaylor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD? - Bellarine Times","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/from-boom-to-doom-but-is-it-really-that-bad\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"FROM BOOM TO DOOM\u2026 BUT IS IT REALLY THAT BAD? - Bellarine Times","og_description":"WITH CORELOGIC\u2019S\u00a0TIM LAWLESS Without a doubt, housing risks are heightened relative to a year ago. 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He has also worked for several publications at Fairfax, including the Knox Weekly, Casey Weekly and Pakenham Weekly, and in the UK with the Berkshire Media Group. Raised in Geelong, James has been back in his hometown since 2011 and now lives in Waurn Ponds. 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