	{"id":5598,"date":"2018-01-22T05:30:05","date_gmt":"2018-01-22T05:30:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/?p=5598"},"modified":"2018-01-22T05:30:05","modified_gmt":"2018-01-22T05:30:05","slug":"look-housing-market-fluctuations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\/","title":{"rendered":"A look at housing market fluctuations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>THE idea of a housing bubble or any other kind of economic bubble has always been debated by economists.<\/p>\n<p>Some believe that a bubble cannot be separated from the market when trying to think about it as a phenomenon.<\/p>\n<p>They believe that the market determines the price, based on supply and demand, and if there is a lot of demand then the price will go up.<\/p>\n<p>If not, it goes down. To some economists, there is no reason to think that the price is divorced\/separate from the asset.<\/p>\n<p>However, there is a larger consensus on the idea of an economic bubble (whether it be a housing bubble, tech bubble, stock market bubble etc.) being a valid phenomenon.<\/p>\n<p><strong>When flowers were more precious than gold<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In 17th century Holland, advancements in the breeding of new varieties of tulips created a number of beautiful variants of the flower.<\/p>\n<p>What resulted was one of the most famous economic bubbles of modern times: the price of tulip bulbs accelerated incredibly quickly, to be worth 10-15 times the average salary of a craftsman.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What caused this?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>It wasn\u2019t just that people thought that these new tulip varieties were beautiful, there were a number of particular factors that influenced this bubble.<\/p>\n<p>The bubonic plague had recently hit the Netherlands so there was a heightened emotional factor that impacted the bubble; a human-based factor that is common to a housing bubble or any other kind of economic bubble.<\/p>\n<p>Bidding for tulip bulbs also took place predominantly late at night in pubs\/taverns where people were influenced by the effects of alcohol, where bidding on tulips became a drinking game, while much of it relied on credit\/debt, another fundamental aspect of an economic bubble.<\/p>\n<p>The crash of the tulip price was just as quick and dramatic.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What are the signs of a housing bubble?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Since the Global Financial Crisis, a number of countries, including Australia, have seen dramatic rises in property prices, there is no greater example of this than in Melbourne and Sydney.<\/p>\n<p>Housing affordability is often paired with the idea of a housing bubble, but there are a number of factors that influence housing affordability, such as general economic growth in a country, wage growth, energy prices, job growth or decline.<\/p>\n<p>However, in 2017, Sydney house prices averaged 13 times that of average yearly incomes; anything above five is considered to be severely unaffordable.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What fuelled this Sydney housing bubble?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>A construction boom of high density living (apartments) is generally seen as a strong cause of a rise in property prices.<\/p>\n<p>In the 2015-16 financial year, 24 per cent of Australia\u2019s GDP growth occurred from just three inner-Sydney districts &#8211; this predominantly came down to the construction of new apartment buildings.<\/p>\n<p>There are other reasons for dramatic rises in house prices: strong population growth, offshore demand increase for properties in Sydney and Melbourne, risky lending practices and easy access to credit (such as a large number of interest-only loans), and a lack of financial literacy in new homeowners to name some of the larger influences.<\/p>\n<p>What tells us that Sydney and Melbourne were the epicentre of this housing bubble was the lack of similar performance outside of these inner-city areas, especially in cities such as Perth and Darwin.<\/p>\n<p>Some are hesitant to identify housing bubbles as \u201cbubbles\u201d because this implies that there will inevitably be a housing bubble burst, just as there was a sharp fall in tulip prices in the 17th century or a sharp fall in the Japanese stock market in the 1990s after its own growth bubble.<\/p>\n<p>Economists are less convinced that property prices in Melbourne and Sydney are as susceptible to a crash in value, but more to a gradual and manageable downturn.<\/p>\n<p>However, there are arguments for letting the air out of a bubble without it crashing.<\/p>\n<p>In 2017, macro prudential regulation techniques by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) were announced in March, aimed at reducing the influence of speculation\/investor lending on the housing market.<\/p>\n<p>This proved to be successful in reducing the ratio of investor lending within the market and in essence, slowly letting the air out of the tyres.<\/p>\n<p><em>Written by Douglas Ross at VIEW.com.au<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble.jpg\" data-rel=\"lightbox-image-0\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"508\" height=\"233\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5595\" srcset=\"https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble.jpg 508w, https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble-300x138.jpg 300w, https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble-24x11.jpg 24w, https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble-36x17.jpg 36w, https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/bubble-48x22.jpg 48w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 508px) 100vw, 508px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>THE idea of a housing bubble or any other kind of economic bubble has always been debated by economists. Some believe that a bubble cannot be separated from the market when trying to think about it as a phenomenon. They believe that the market determines the price, based on supply and demand, and if there [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":86,"featured_media":5596,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"post_folder":[],"class_list":["post-5598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A look at housing market fluctuations - Bellarine Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A look at housing market fluctuations - Bellarine Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"THE idea of a housing bubble or any other kind of economic bubble has always been debated by economists. 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They believe that the market determines the price, based on supply and demand, and if there [...]Read More...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\/bellarinetimes\/real-estate\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Bellarine Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-01-22T05:30:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\/prod\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2018\/01\/A-look-at-housing-market-fluctuations.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"504\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"361\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Douglass Ross\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Douglass Ross\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Douglass Ross\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/2f2bf5f953464ff591ff5c30d415d36e\"},\"headline\":\"A look at housing market fluctuations\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-01-22T05:30:05+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":706,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/static.timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/prod\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2018\\\/01\\\/A-look-at-housing-market-fluctuations.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Real Estate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-AU\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/timesnewsgroup.com.au\\\/bellarinetimes\\\/real-estate\\\/look-housing-market-fluctuations\\\/\",\"name\":\"A look at housing market fluctuations - 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