THE Reserve Bank has raised the cash rate to 1.35 per cent from 0.85 per cent at its July board meeting, the third consecutive monthly increase as it tries to rein in ballooning inflation.<\/p>\n
\u201cToday\u2019s increase in interest rates is a further step in the withdrawal of the extraordinary monetary support that was put in place to help insure the Australian economy against the worst possible effects of the pandemic,\u201d RBA governor Philip Lowe said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe resilience of the economy and the higher inflation mean that this extraordinary support is no longer needed.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said the board expected to take further steps \u201cover the months ahead\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board\u2019s assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market.\u201d<\/p>\n
RateCity estimates the rise will add $137 a month to a $500,000 mortgage, or $499 per month on a $750,000 loan.<\/p>\n
Another hike is expected in August following the release of second quarter inflation data.<\/p>\n
Anneke Thompson, chief economist at CreditorWatch, said it was unsurprising given projections of inflation, currently at a 21-year high of 5.1 per cent, heads towards seven per cent by the end of the year.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt is highly likely that further increases in the cash rate will be announced as the RBA is probably beyond taking a \u2018wait and see\u2019 approach to the impact of their cash rate rises and will need to continue raising rates until they get comfortable that inflation is starting to move down.\u201d<\/p>\n
The housing market already responded to the previous rise and will be closely watched as banks set their new higher loan rates.<\/p>\n
The Corelogic Home Value Index for June showed house prices in Sydney and Melbourne dropped by 2.8 and 1.8 per cent respectively over the quarter, with only Adelaide trending upwards.<\/p>\n
PropTrack senior economist Eleanor Creagh said buyer demand is already moderating, with auction volumes and clearance rates down and sales volumes slipping, along with falling prices.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a rapid policy tightening and whilst high household debt and weak sentiment is a risk, these factors are offset by the tight labour market, promoting a degree of confidence and job security and hopefully, in turn, stronger wages growth,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
She said despite the market implicitly pricing a cash rate of three per cent by December, it was likely the cash rate will end the year \u201ccloser to two per cent than three per cent\u201d.<\/p>\n
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