Weather woes threaten bonza harvest

WITH much of Victoria seeing some tough cropping conditions, overall Australia is looking towards harvesting a “marginally larger” winter crop this season, according to forecasts by Rabobank.

Despite significant weather challenges experienced in a number of key grain-growing regions throughout the year, Rabobank says in its 2024/25 Australian Winter Crop Forecast that the nation is still on track to produce an estimated total winter crop of 47.1 million tonnes, up one per cent (0.5 million tonnes) on the previous season, but down a significant 13 per cent on the five-year average.

A combination of lack of timely rainfall along with late frosts in some regions has taken the edge off this year’s production prospects, the bank says, with overall grain and oilseed production forecast to be down 43 per cent on the previous year in South Australia and 35 per cent in Victoria, two of the hardest-hit states.

Report author, RaboResearch analyst Vitor Pistoia, said the projected “small uptick” in total crop production in 2024-25 was “poised to come mainly from wheat” and, to a smaller extent, pulses and oats.

“While the wheat harvest is expected to be an improvement on last year, canola and barley production look set to be down year-on-year due to the combination of low rainfall and late frost which struck many crops at a critical period,” he said.

Mr Pistoia said this winter cropping season had been a “mixed bag”, characterised by patchy rainfall, a warm winter and late frosts.

“A good start to the season and beneficial rainfall through the growing period in Queensland, northern New South Wales and some areas of Western Australia had largely been “counterbalanced” by a lack of rainfall that had impacted Victorian and South Australian crops.

“Large swathes of WA, Victoria and South Australia had to wait until early June to see seed germination,” Mr Pistoia said.

The report confirms rainfall through the growing season was patchy, and this was coupled with a widespread warmer winter.

Higher winter temperatures, of up to two degrees Celsius above average depending on the region, boosted water evaporation at the same time it prompted faster crop development.

Then, in mid-September, Mr Pistoia said, the south-eastern part of Australia’s cropping belt, including in some areas of South Australia, had been struck by consecutive nights of late frost.

“This cold snap damaged crops to differing degrees and prompted many farmers to cut them for hay, especially in the regions already affected by low rainfall volumes, such as Victoria and South Australia.”

The Rabobank report estimates Australia’s 2024/25 wheat production to total approximately 27.6 million tonnes, an increase of six per cent (1.6 million tonnes) on the previous year, albeit down eight per cent on the five-year average. Combined, Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia’s increased wheat production is expected to be 5.7 million tonnes, while production in Victoria and South Australia declined.

Australia’s barley harvest is forecast to decline five per cent (0.5 million tonnes) on the previous year to 10.4 million tonnes (down 21 per cent on the five-year average).

“This expectation is mostly due to the drop in the barley crop in Victoria,” Mr Pistoia said. Victoria’s barley harvest is expected to be down by one million tonnes on last season, at 1.7 million tonnes.

Mr Pistoia said that for barley, lower global stocks of the malting variety are supporting prices for some regions, although not for Australia.

“Despite the lower stocks, global demand for malting barley is also soft and in addition Australia’s distance from key markets puts us at a disadvantage, however, the re-opening of the Chinese market to Australian barley producers is supporting the Australian barley demand outlook.”

Following the removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian barley, China regained its position as the number one destination for Australia’s barley exports in 2024.