Interest rates on the move. What should you be watching?

With the RBA lifting interest rates again this month, the question on the minds of many homeowners and business owners is simple: what does this mean for the rest of 2026?

If only it were easy to answer.

Right now, predicting interest rate movements feels harder than ever. Significant global events seem to unfold weekly. Geopolitics, energy markets, supply chains, elections and economic data all collide and compound.

Each one can shift sentiment quickly and markets respond in real time. And while we do want to try and put the noise to one side, it can be helpful to form your own view.

While no one has a crystal ball, there are a few key indicators we watch closely at Tribe when forming our own view.

If you want to cut through the noise, here are three worth keeping an eye on.

1. Monthly inflation data

For years, the RBA relied heavily on quarterly inflation figures. The challenge was that gathering accurate data genuinely took close to three months. By the time it was released, it was already somewhat dated.

In today’s world, data collection is faster and more sophisticated.

The RBA has gradually shifted to place greater weight on monthly inflation figures, which are typically released between the 25th and the end of each month.

One month on its own does not make a trend. But trends matter.

If we consistently see inflation tracking within the RBA’s target band of 2 per cent to 3 per cent, that is a strong signal that policy settings are working.

If inflation starts drifting higher again, expect the conversation around further rate rises to intensify. The trend is our friend here.

2. Fixed interest rates from the major banks

The big lenders employ chief economists and entire research teams to shape their internal forecasts. While they publish commentary, one of the clearest signals is often their fixed rate pricing.

When banks believe further rate rises are likely, fixed rates often move up first. This protects their margins and reflects their forward view.

On the other hand, if they believe rates have peaked or may fall, we often see fixed rates soften as banks compete to lock in customers before a potential downward cycle.

Watching fixed rate movements can provide an early clue as to what the banks think might happen next. We monitor these changes very closely.

3. The ASX interest rate tracker

Another useful tool is the ASX interest rate tracker. A quick search online will bring it up.

It reflects what traders in the bond market are pricing in for future rate movements.

It is not foolproof. Markets can and do change their minds. But it offers a real time snapshot of where professional money is positioning itself.

At the end of the day, there will always be opinions, forecasts and plenty of noise. Our advice remains consistent: stay informed, but focus on what you can control.

Structure your lending well, build buffers where possible, and make decisions based on your long-term goals, not short-term headlines.

Have a question you’d like to ask our team? Email [email protected]

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