What are the things that impact your property decisions?
WITH GARETH KENT
In the last few weeks, there has been a lot of press surrounding the changing economy.
Many big data people and journalists have been predicting doom and gloom. In their view, interest rate hikes are coming, inflation is the boogyman, oil prices are negatively impacting the economy and the war in the Ukraine could make anything happen?
Just headlines! Let me assure you, when it comes to property; our region is okay!
The study of property is the study of people. It’s looking at what factors will change people’s decisions and these decisions will impact demand and supply.
So if you want to know if boom or bust is around the corner, ask yourself “what has changed in my world that would make me change my decision-making process about my property”.
Well, that depends on where you live and work. Commuter suburbs like Lara, Bannockburn, Winchelsea, Clifton Springs and Leopold etc, are all highly exposed to increased fuel prices with a large population working in either Melbourne or Greater Geelong and very few options for public transport. Yes, this will impact. In fact, this has been evident in a noticeable slowing in sales rates in all these commuter townships in the last few weeks. But with fuel prices correcting, we haven’t seen a decline in values, just in the time taken to sell. Conversely this does not seem to be a decision-making issue in the inner suburban areas.
All Australian banks are now predicting that property values will still rise throughout 2022, with a correction on the horizon in 2023.
Are they predicting rate rises? You bet they are! Perhaps if they say it enough, it will happen? If and when interest rates increase, the movement upwards is historically in quarterly 0.25 per cent increases, so the impact is not sudden and people have time to absorb and adjust.
Does half a percentage make a difference to you? Home loans are measured on the capacity for you to pay back usually two per cent or three per cent above what the lending rate is, so theoretically this should also dampen impact.
We have two big elections on the horizon, and all parties will make promises that impact decision-making; public transport upgrades, road upgrades, school funding, health, and defence spending. So while we are deciding, we feel uncertain. This uncertainity means we take longer to make decisions and translates into longer selling periods periods for property. But this is only temporary, and we forget about politics the day after we make our vote!
Yes, it is here; when you go to your local pub, and a pot of beer is $11 and a parma is $30, you know inflation is here. But inflation historically brings with it wage growth, and this has been long overdue.
With our low unemployment rates, wages have finally been forced upwards, and it’s about time. What will you buy with your increased wage, why a house of course!
The COVID period has seen a fundamental change in how we work and live; it has created movements in our economy and increased internal migration like never before.
We can’t predict the future, so don’t be afraid of the change, understand what things impact your property decisions, and you will understand whether to buy or sell and where and when to do so!
Happy house hunting!