Winter crops heading towards record high

THE Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences crop report June is forecasting above average winter production in 2021–22.

Area planted to winter crops is set to reach a record high nationally thanks to favourable climate conditions and high world prices.

Acting ABARES executive director Dr Jared Greenville said that winter crop prospects are forecast to be well above average nationally, but there will be differences across growing regions.

“Winter crop production is forecast to be 46.8 million tonnes in 2021–22, which is below the near record high production last year but 13 per cent above the 10-year average to 2020–21,” he said.

“Mixed yield performance due to tougher seasonal conditions in some areas is expected to reduce production despite the area sown to winter crops being forecast to reach a record high of 23.2 million hectares, up two per cent from last year.

“Yield prospects in most cropping regions in New South Wales, Western Australia and much of Queensland are very favourable given the favourable conditions at the beginning of the winter crop season and the outlook for winter rainfall.

“Crop yields in New South Wales are forecast to be lower than the record highs achieved last season but well above the 10-year average to 2020–21.

“In Western Australia, crop yields are forecast to be comparable to last season at around nine per cent above the 10-year average to 2020–21.

“In contrast, planting conditions in most regions in South Australia and Victoria were generally unfavourable.

“Most producers in these two states will be reliant on winter rainfall to finish planting, and for crops to establish and develop.

However, it’s not all good news, with the current mouse plague in News South Wales likely to drive up cost of production.

“Increased mice populations in the eastern states have resulted in producers undertaking more baiting than usual this season,” Dr Greenville said.

“This will increase costs of production in affected regions, but farm management practices have so far minimised damage to winter crop plantings and development in affected regions.

“Some producers are likely to suffer production losses from mouse damage despite the step up in control activity, but national production levels are expected to be largely unaffected given the vast size of Australia’s cropping region.

“Early indicators are that mouse numbers have peaked in most regions as cold and wet winter conditions slow breeding rates.

“However, some risk remains if warmer weather in spring results in a resurgence of mice.

Meanwhile, predictions on winter planting volumes are a mixed bag with some key broadacres up year-on-year, others down but an overall small gain.

“For the major winter crops, area planted to wheat is forecast to increase by one per cent to around 13.1 million hectares,” Dr Greenville said.

“Area planted to barley is forecast to fall by four per cent to around 4.2 million hectares.

“Area planted to canola is forecast to increase by 25 per cent to almost three million hectares, the third highest on record.

“Wheat production is forecast to fall by 17 per cent to 27.8 million tonnes but still be 15 per cent above the 10-year average to 2020–21.

Dr Greenville said that the three-month seasonal outlook from June to August issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 3 June indicated winter rainfall is likely to be above average in most cropping regions in eastern states and South Australia.