Positive outlook for industry

Everything points to a strong 2023 for Australian beef

The Australian Beef industry and cattle herd are well positioned to capitalise on changing global supply dynamics this year. It will be a year of transition and maturity for Australia’s cattle herd, with any increases in numbers now beyond rebuild status, with all key production metrics forecast to improve this year, according to the latest Cattle Industry Projections update from Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA).

Continued rainfall and favourable seasonal conditions seen last year will ensure that there will be solid supply of both young and slaughter weight cattle over the next two years, regardless of seasonal outcomes. Southern Australia will continue t drive increases in cattle numbers, particularly New South Wales, with supply improvements also expected from southern Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria to different extents. In the north, last year saw favourable seasonal conditions for large parts of Queensland, driving the beginning of the state’s herd rebuild and an improvement in female numbers. Northern Australia’s rebuild is expected to gain significant pace this year.

Overall, the cattle herd this year will grow to its highest level since 2014, reaching 28.8m head, an increase of 1.1m or 4.5% yearon-year. According to MLA’s Senior Market Information Analyst Ripley Atkinson, this growth is underpinned by a few key factors.

“The record retention of females SALES ON NOW Mount Gambier Angus Bulls Wrattenbullie Poll Herefords PRIVATE SALES Tugulawa Simmental Stud FEBRUARY SALES Goolagong Santa & Angus Stud Friday Friday 17th February 1pm (Warnertown) Bonnydale Black Simmentals Monday 13th March @ 1pm(WST) Bridgetown WA Sterita Park Angus Monday 13th February 4pm Lucindale SA Yerwal Estate Simmentals Monday 13th February @10.30am Lucindale South Nampara Pastoral Co Tuesday Tuesday14th February on property Mandayen Wednesday 15th February Keith SA Glatz Black Angus Wednesday 15th February @11.30am Avenue Range SA Boonaroo Angus Friday February 17th 11.30am (Vic Time) Oak Downs Friday February 17th Glendan Park Herefords & Adameluca Angus Friday 24th February @ 1pm Lindsay Murray Greys Tuesday 28th February @ 11.30am (Pigeon Ponds) Weeran Angus Tuesday February 28th @1pm MARCH SALES Naracoorte Shorthorn Bull Sale Thursday 16th March Naracoorte SA (Bundaleer, Nentoura, Caskieben) http://www.lifestyle1.net/ magazines/beef-bull/ Upcoming bull sales for 15 consecutive months, coupled with above-average marking rates has delivered larger calf drops,” Mr Atkinson said. “This bodes well for supply to increase substantially in 2023 for both young and slaughter-weight cattle.

“Both of these metrics suggest that the lowest or most significant retention of stock on record occurred for the year. This underpins the positive growth in numbers forecast for the next three years.”

By 2025, the national herd is expected to reach its highest level since the 1970s at 29.6m head, before a steady decline. This continued growth is due to strong female reproductive performance, genetic improvements across ONLINE NOW AT lifestyle1.net the herd and sound on farm management. Input prices and cost of production will be major factors affecting the ability of the sector to remain productive and efficient.

In addition, the availability of skilled and unskilled workers to manage the increased supply of cattle in 2023 will be the major issue affecting the red meat industry. The processing sector’s ability to process cattle will determine production levels and therefore exports in 2023.

MLA’s Market Information team have recognised this with a twoscenario forecast for 2023. “If labour concerns are not addressed within the processing sector, slaughter is forecast to reach 6m head,” Mr Atkinson said.

“Based on actual supply of cattle this year, the forecasts indicate an uptick in numbers to 6.625m head.

“2023 will be a year of transition for the cattle industry.

“Positive outcomes along the entire supply chain seem likely as the exceptional operating conditions on-farm continue.

“The overall outlook for Australia’s beef industry both domestically and internationally is one of optimism and positivity, whilst it continues to deliver high quality beef in larger volumes, this is expected to be a major feature in 2023.”