A POLITICAL expert shed some light on the leading election at an event in Geelong last week.
\nDr David Smith, senior lecturer at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, was the guest speaker at a breakfast at The Pier, organised by the Committee for Geelong and the American Chamber of Commerce.
\nIn his talk \u2013 titled \u201cWhy? Why? Why? Why?\u201d \u2013 Mr Smith said he was frequently asked if there had ever been a candidate like Donald Trump.
\n\u201cThe answer is no, just purely on the grounds on nobody has ever come from this far outside politics into a presidential race and gone this far before.\u201d
\nDr Smith said the closest thing Trump had to a forerunner was George Wallace, who ran for president in 1968 and 1972.
\nHe said politics could be viewed as a question of \u201cwho gets what, when and how?\u201d, and Trump was a master of the politics of \u201cwho\u201d with his populist appeals.
\n\u201cThat is when he begins to gather a very emotional base of support; people who believe that their fundamental national identity is at stake.\u201d
\nDr Smith said Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders had \u201ccome a remarkable distance\u201d as an outsider but would probably lose the nomination to Hillary Clinton.
\nHowever, it is \u201cpossible, but not likely\u201d that Trump will actually become president, as a contested convention was the only way he would not be the Republican nominee.
\n\u201cAll the polling suggests to this point that if it\u2019s Clinton vs Trump, Clinton will win, and by a pretty substantial margin.
\n\u201cBut if there is a recession between now and then \u2013 which isn\u2019t necessarily likely but it\u2019s possible \u2013 then all bets are off. The president\u2019s party always gets battered during a recession.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A POLITICAL expert shed some light on the leading election at an event in Geelong last week. Dr David Smith, senior lecturer at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, was the guest speaker at a breakfast at The Pier, organised by the Committee for Geelong and the American Chamber of Commerce. […]<\/p>\n