The rains are here…again

By Lachlan Ellis

It’s official – after months of speculation, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has declared a La Niña event is underway and will arrive in eastern Australia for the third year in a row.

BOM made the announcement last week and recommended communities in the eastern states “should be prepared for above average rainfall”, with Head of Long-Range Forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins saying most of the eastern half of the mainland and Tasmania would be affected.

“During La Niña events, waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are cooler than normal, and waters in the western tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than normal. This causes changes in wind, cloud, and pressure patterns over the Pacific. When this change in the atmosphere combines with changes in ocean temperature, it can influence global weather patterns and climate, including increasing rainfall over large parts of Australia,” Dr Watkins said.

“La Niña is not the only driver influencing this wet outlook. To our west, a significant negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway. We expect the IOD influence will reduce in late spring or early summer.”

While more rain might sound like a good thing for farmers, Balliang East farmer Chris Sharkey is concerned about the possibility of extra rain.

He said that another La Niña could be a positive for some farmers, but probably not for him.

“It’s not too good, because we’re trying to get crops harvested. Last year was fairly trying, the moisture in the air and the rain makes things a bit tricky. We’re locked in, our crops have been in for three or four months now,” he told the Moorabool News.

“It’ll mean that we can get downgraded pretty easily, or we can’t deliver if it’s bad enough. What happens is, with canola, wheat, and barley, it’ll start regrowing in the head. That’s not good, that’s feed. Once wheat regerminates it’s no good for milling, same for canola.

“If you’ve got cattle or sheep, it’s probably not too bad, I’m not sure how the spud blokes go, it probably wouldn’t worry them too much because it’s more irrigation for them. But for grain growers here in the eastern end of the Shire, it’s not so good.”

Dr Watkins said all these climate influences push Australia’s climate towards a wetter phase, and together have shaped our outlook for the coming months that shows more than 80 per cent chance of above average rainfall for many parts of the eastern half of Australia.

You can stay up to date with weather conditions and warnings via the Bureau of Meteorology app and website, or at www.emergency.vic.gov.au.