Australian red meat exporters to continue global dominance in 2025

AUSTRALIA’S sheep and cattle herd has taken a hit due to unseasonal conditions in the past 12 months, especially in the southern regions of the country.

And according to Meat & Livestock Australia’s (MLA) 2025 Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections report, the big kill off is expected to continue.

MLA projects that the national cattle herd and sheep flock are both expected to decline slightly as record production, slaughter and exports meet demand.

The cattle herd is projected to fall by 1.4 per cent to 30.1 million head in 2025 due to increased turn-off of older breeding cows and dry conditions in Southern Australia.

The sheep flock is expected to fall 7.4 per cent to 73.2 million head due to the increased turn-off of older breeding ewes and tough seasonal conditions across key sheep producing areas.

According to MLA managing director Michael Crowley, the Cattle and Sheep Industry Projections show the red meat industry is ready to respond to global demand in 2025.

“Record production and elevated slaughter rates are being met with strong demand from well-established relationships with customers throughout the global supply chain,” Mr Crowley said.

 

“By consulting with producers, processors, agents, and government, MLA creates a clear forecast of the national herd and flock, slaughter, production and carcase weights for the cattle and sheep industries.”

Australia is currently in an opposite supply cycle to major beef-producing competitors such as the United States and Brazil, and as the US begins its long-overdue herd rebuild, along with drought conditions in Brazil easing, the global beef supply is expected to tighten.

Mr Crowley said Australia was well-positioned to achieve record production and export volumes again.

“With increasing carcase weights, storage space has become more valuable, and efficient logistics are now essential to maintaining processing flow and preventing bottlenecks in the supply chain.

“Looking ahead, Australia’s investments in domestic production, processing capacity, and global trade relationships have positioned the cattle sector well for the next few years.”

The report notes that the sheep slaughter is forecast to decline 17 per cent to 9.8 million head in 2025, following the record rates of sheep turn-off at the conclusion of 2024.

Lamb slaughter is forecast to reach 26.2 million head, which is a slight 0.5 per cent decline from 2024.

However, this still represents the second-largest slaughter year on record behind 2024.

Despite the decline in the national sheep flock, lamb production continues to operate at historically high levels reaching 628,648 tonnes in 2025.

This is in part driven by genetic changes in the flock with a focus on improving weight gain and yield in lamb carcases.

Their report highlights that Australia and New Zealand account for more than 80 per cent of global sheepmeat exports, however, the long-standing decline of the New Zealand sheep flock provides an opportunity for Australian sheepmeat exporters to continue their global dominance in 2025.