Hot races tipped for Polwarth, South Barwon

GEELONG region seats could go down to the wire at the upcoming state election following a boundary redistribution, according to recent Victorian Electoral Commission findings.

Polwarth and South Barwon are tipped to become marginal seats at November’s ballot after last year’s redivision of electoral boundaries.

New boundaries take effect from November 1, when writs for the 2022 state election are issued.

The VEC released a report this month that showed results under the new boundaries using voting patterns from the 2018 election, to provide a better indication of the balance in redrawn electorates.

The seat of Polwarth, held by Liberal MP Richard Riordan, appears on course for one of its closest battles ever due to the redistribution.

The traditionally conservative-voting rural seat will take in Torquay at the 2022 vote at the expense of farming communities such as in Golden Plains Shire, which the VEC predicts will boost the prospects of Labor candidate Hutch Hussein.

Under the redrawn boundaries, the VEC said Mr Riordan holds the seat on a two-per-cent margin, instead of the 5.4 per cent from the 2018 vote.

Meanwhile, South Barwon’s redistribution is also set to favour the seat’s challenger.

Labor MP Darren Cheeseman won the 2018 count by 4.6 per cent, but the loss of Torquay would cut the buffer to three per cent from the Liberal party, to be represented this year by Andrew Katos.

The redistribution is set to have negligible impact on three local Labor-held seats of Geelong, Lara and Bellalrine.