Talking Trump in Geelong

A POLITICAL expert shed some light on the leading election at an event in Geelong last week.
Dr David Smith, senior lecturer at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, was the guest speaker at a breakfast at The Pier, organised by the Committee for Geelong and the American Chamber of Commerce.
In his talk – titled “Why? Why? Why? Why?” – Mr Smith said he was frequently asked if there had ever been a candidate like Donald Trump.
“The answer is no, just purely on the grounds on nobody has ever come from this far outside politics into a presidential race and gone this far before.”
Dr Smith said the closest thing Trump had to a forerunner was George Wallace, who ran for president in 1968 and 1972.
He said politics could be viewed as a question of “who gets what, when and how?”, and Trump was a master of the politics of “who” with his populist appeals.
“That is when he begins to gather a very emotional base of support; people who believe that their fundamental national identity is at stake.”
Dr Smith said Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders had “come a remarkable distance” as an outsider but would probably lose the nomination to Hillary Clinton.
However, it is “possible, but not likely” that Trump will actually become president, as a contested convention was the only way he would not be the Republican nominee.
“All the polling suggests to this point that if it’s Clinton vs Trump, Clinton will win, and by a pretty substantial margin.
“But if there is a recession between now and then – which isn’t necessarily likely but it’s possible – then all bets are off. The president’s party always gets battered during a recession.”