Geelong prices double in 10 years despite national slowdown

Geelong’s property market has stayed true to the real estate adage of house prices doubling in 10 years, according to the latest analysis.

But the past decade could be the last time that statement rings true as the market’s higher price base means smaller increase in percentage terms, and sharp increases seen during COVID-19 unlikely to replicated.

Market analysts PropTrack said Geelong’s median house price was $770,000 in May – double the $385,000 recorded in the same month of 2013.

The continued growth meant Geelong was among the Australian mainland’s fastest growing areas during that period.

Some local markets had even better results, with data from last month indicating Anglesea had added almost $1 million to its median house price in just five years.

Geelong’s figure was similar to the rest of regional Victoria, which doubled slightly faster from a lower base; from $291,500 to $587,000 in nine years and seven months.

Melbourne took just over 13 years (157 months) to spike from $437,000 to its present median price of $880,000.

Nationally, house prices took a little more than 15 years to double on average, with Geelong among the few markets to buck the trend.

Tasmania’s prices doubled in around six years from their lower starting point, while regional New South Wales and Sydney hit the benchmark in a shade less than 10 years.

PropTrack economic research director Cameron Kusher said today’s homebuyers would most likely not experience the same capital gain as percentage growth slowed from higher starting points.

“While property prices have risen significantly since the beginning of the pandemic, it has taken many years for median prices to double to their current values across most parts of the country.

“This highlights that as the cost of housing has increased, the percentage gains in prices have reduced.”

The data also confirmed that house prices are still rising in value faster than units across the country.

Geelong’s median unit price doubled in 155 months (12.9 years) to May, from $270,000 to $540,000.

It outperformed the national average of 213 months (17.8 years) and Melbourne’s 198 months (16.5 years).

“Median price increases for houses are typically stronger than units, particularly in capital cities. In fact, house prices have doubled sooner than unit prices across all capital cities and regional markets,” Mr Kusher said.

“Rising interest rates and much higher prices, along with other economic and demographic factors, will weigh on the prospects of prices doubling in the future.”