Shifting gears: What the headlines miss about confidence, chaos and Canberra

THE world feels loud again. Big personalities, bold headlines, and plenty of noise about what comes next.

But beneath it all, there are some quieter, more telling shifts happening – both abroad and closer to home. Here are three things worth paying attention to as we settle into the rhythm of 2025.

1. Trump’s trade war: a global shrug and pivot away

Donald Trump continues to perform, announcing sweeping tariffs that he hopes will reignite America’s manufacturing base. The headlines call it a global trade war, but look a little closer – it’s more like America’s trade war with the world. And the world, it seems, is starting to move on.

In recent months, we’ve seen China, Japan, and South Korea – not exactly historical besties – come together to work on a new trade partnership. Europe is speaking more closely with Beijing too. The irony? China is now the adult superpower in the room, keeping trade routes calm while the U.S. rants from the corner. How Trump responds to being excluded from the global party will be one to watch over the next three years and nine months. Nobody puts baby in a corner.

2. Confidence at home: Aussie households are back in the game

While the global scene feels shaky, the mood on the ground in Australia is shifting in a different direction. At Tribe, we’re noticing something encouraging: confidence, not the flashy, over-leveraged kind – just quiet optimism returning to the room.

Clients aren’t just asking “Can we afford it?” anymore. They’re asking, “What’s possible?” That subtle shift tells you everything. We’re seeing changeover buyers again, investors back on the hunt, and even a resurgence in SMSF property purchases. People are thinking longer term, and that only happens when they feel secure enough to lift their heads above the parapet. It’s good to see.

3. Politics as usual? Let’s hope not

Australia is heading into another federal election, and while the media will do their best to whip it into a cultural cage match, the reality is more reassuring: our politics remains fairly centrist. Yes, policies shift. But life for most Australians doesn’t swing dramatically depending on who takes office. That’s a luxury we shouldn’t take for granted.

But here’s the red flag: government spending. Regardless of party, we are now well outside historical norms. Budgets are ballooning, and the temptation to buy votes with big, shiny promises is real. What we need now is leadership focused on sustainable fiscal management — not short-term sugar hits. Otherwise, it’s only a matter of time before the music stops and someone has to turn the lights back on. Consider it when deciding how to cast your vote.

The wrap While the headlines scream trade wars and political showdowns, the deeper trends tell a more interesting story. Globally, we’re seeing a realignment that may leave America out in the cold. Locally, Australians are quietly getting on with things – building, planning, investing. And politically, we have a chance to choose substance over sizzle. That’s not a bad place to be.

Considering something similar for your family and not sure what’s possible? Or have a question you’d like to ask our team?

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WITH TRIBE FINANCIAL

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