Fire, then Flooding Rains

There will inevitably be some recriminations directed [on this occasion, a mite unfairly] at ‘the authorities’—and especially the Bureau of Meteorology [BoM]—after the damaging flash floods along the GOR … especially as they occurred synchronously with a destructive and conjoining duo of bushfires at nearby Cape Otway, Carlisle River, and Gellibrand.

Even as lurid red skies and plumes of superheated smoke were blanketing the ranges from the west, it seemed unthinkable that coincident and highly-localised flood epicentres might hit the eight eastern slope rivers from Kennett River to the Erskine. But it did happen and will not easily be forgotten.

On ‘Deluge Day’, I posted a possible mechanism on the Lorne Facebook page—a theory that was later separately confirmed by the CFA fire chief. The post read as follows:

“The deluge was likely the chance coincidence of a plume of superheated air from a bushfire in the western half of the Otways meeting wet, cold, heavily spray-laden air from a seasonal easterly sweeping in and up over the steep eastern slopes, the two colliding at Mt Cowley, the Otways’ highest point. When the hot bushfire air blocked the usually harmless dispersal of the wet easterly front across the ranges and stopped it at Mt Cowley, it condensed it into a dense fog and sudden heavy rain that fell without warning in a very localised area at the top of the eastern slopes. The water then barrelled back down the short, steep ravines that form the Kennett, Wye, Separation, Jamieson, Cumberland, Sheoak, George, and Erskine rivers, turning their seasonal near-dry beds into eight raging torrents that then rushed to the sea. This rare combination of a western slope fire and an easterly slope storm translated into a sudden, highly damaging flood event that caused unparalleled coastal mayhem, the likes of which few [if any] can recall. I feel for all those affected—especially the campers along our usually pristine streams—but it is highly improbable that there will be a repeat occurrence.”

I do pity the BoM and the emergency service personnel who do their best to predict, warn, and respond. While I am loath to use that profoundly overused word—unprecedented—this recent flood event has been truly so, at least in the recorded history of our region. While floods similar in water height and campground destruction occurred in 1946, 1973 and 1985, it was ‘speed’ and ‘ferocity’ that will stand 2026 apart.

As for the hapless folk at the BoM? … it is another undeniable case of “be damned if you do or be damned if you don’t”.

It is easy to be critical—but much harder to be grateful—for the best efforts of our fellow humans, fallible as we all are, in their constant struggle to ‘keep us all safe’. Indeed, they do try, and they do warn — and warnings did go out, albeit they were too late for any coordinated action to be taken. However, the unique circumstances that gave rise to this ‘event’ occurred so abruptly that the emergency systems did well to get any warnings out at all.

What, then, of our warning systems? While these are now generally well established, perhaps more thought should be given to their nuancing, triaging, grading, and targeting. Blanket alarms—now endlessly broadcast through the Vic Emergency app—can perversely have a reverse effect. For example, alerting city folk to the threat of brown rot in fruit orchards or sheep trotter disease in muddy pastures is irrelevant for them, and risks stultifying their response to more realistic threats. If overused—especially as high wind warnings seem to be—minds dull when looking out the window at leaves still deathly still. Overused warnings risk desensitising the community by ‘crying wolf’. Then, when an alert really matters, it may be ignored or sent to smartphone trash cans, negating its relevance.

Pairing the Aesop phrase ‘crying wolf’ and ‘weather warnings’ in the now-ubiquitous Google AI, the following [significantly abbreviated] response returned:

“The BoM issues a specific and serious ‘sheep grazier warning’ when a combination of cold temperatures, rain, and wind chill is expected — conditions that pose significant risks of death from hypothermia, particularly for freshly shorn sheep and new lambs. It is actionable advice for farmers to shelter vulnerable livestock, and it is vital for animal welfare and agricultural operations.

There is, however, a potential danger of issuing too many warnings … of ‘crying wolf’ … that desensitise the general public to real threats, reduces the effectiveness of future alerts, and lead to public complacency and inaction when genuine, life-threatening events occur.

The Lamb or Wolf concept highlights the contrast between specific, actionable weather warnings for livestock vs. the credibility of general public warnings in emergency management.”

Over-calling risk is just as risky as under-calling it … especially when public alerts are amplified by breathless, junior and inexperienced media cubs searching for ever-more sensational language to “make their mark”!

A nuanced warning system is likely a hellishly difficult task, and as a simple Joe Citizen and IT Luddite, I certainly don’t have any right answers, but it seems we badly need a more targeted approach.

The Vic Emergency app allows you to create a “Watch Zone”, say 50km around Lorne or another location, and set preferences for the type of warnings and notifications you wish to receive. In order to do this, you must download the VicEmergency App to your device and create a login profile – an email address and password. Then you can access all the features including creating multiple Watch Zones. You can create your Profile in “Menu” in the top right hand corner and add a Watch Zone at the bottom of the Screen

The following link will play a short video with instructions on how to set up this feature of the App –https://tinyurl.com/watch-zone. For example, as a west coastal retiree, endless emergency pings to warn me of strong winds in East Gippsland, or of brown rot and frosts, while of likely value to Mallacootans and farmers, have little import to me, in Lorne—other than to cause me to tremble for my potted tomatoes. This allows the user to auto-accept [or auto-exclude] auto-warnings according to personal requirements. Alternatively, alerts could be selectively beamed into our personally selected ‘Watch Zones’.

The BoM will never get it right every time … they are but human and can only interpret their best responses to the ever-changing data and the ‘algorithms and models’—love ‘em or hate ‘em—they use as predictors. And as for alerting to the flash floods of 15th January? … I doubt any warning system could be sufficiently robust.

In the end, count two blessings … no lives were lost, and we can be thankful it didn’t happen at night! But because our topography is prone to flooding, it will happen again.

John Agar

Feature Writer

A word from the chairman

Hello
As I write this column on Tuesday morning, Victoria is facing possibly the hottest day on record and, with an out-of-control bushfire in the Otways, we are all facing the potential of a catastrophic day. All the talk of bushfire preparedness suddenly becomes a reality. We hope that the wind is kind to us, whilst we feel for those impacted by the fires. Hopefully by the time you read this column, the danger will have passed us for now, but we know we must continue to be vigilant.
Lorne celebrated Australia Day in style over a long weekend of sunny skies (despite some smoke haze), busy beaches, crowds everywhere and music at multiple venues. Unfortunately, a total fire ban on Saturday caused the cancellation of the Foreshore market. Also, all Colac District cricket games were abandoned due to extreme heat and fire danger. Our thoughts and prayers are with our cricket mates throughout the Otways as they face challenging times.
The weekend saw the last hurrah for the Aquatic Club as it closes for the long-awaited Point Grey redevelopment. The Club held its first fishing competition for the year, and while the catch was insubstantial, the increasing participation of juniors was welcome, as was the delicious traditional roast lunch which followed. Later in the day Brian Taylor took to the microphone to conduct an auction of all the surplus furniture, equipment and fittings which will not be required in the rebuilt clubhouse, together with some unique photographs. The enthusiastic crowd contributed generously to help raise just under $20,000 which will all go to worthy local causes. The Club has already committed $4,000 to help rebuilding efforts in Cumberland and Wye Rivers following the recent devastating floods. Later in the day Ronny Hollmer and his band Not Dead Yet took to the stage to bang out some golden oldies well into the night. On Monday, Australia Day, the local CFA held a fundraising BBQ which raised in excess of $5,000. All in all, a fitting farewell to the old clubhouse. We now wait in excited anticipation for the commencement and speedy completion of the redevelopment. During the redevelopment the Club will convene at the Surf Club on Friday nights only.
As our children, grandchildren (and teachers) return to school, or start for the first time, we wish them well. It will take some adjustment to get into a new routine after the freedom of summer, but the making or renewing of friendships will ease the pain and look, here comes another weekend!
Meanwhile, we locals regroup and recover from our summer influx of visitors. Congratulations to all our hospitality and accommodation providers who have coped with the many thousand visitors amidst the uncertainty of unforeseen events, and have served all with friendliness, courtesy and respect. Well done!

Cheers